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The Drake Equation

By Aachi Mithin - 11:48 PM Wednesday 25 April 2007

The near earth star survey and the night sky star catalogue recently estimated that the number of visible stars in the billions of galaxies in the visible universe amounted to 70 sextillion. That number is soooooooo huge I wont even try to explain it. For those who are interested it is 70 million million million million million million million million million million million stars….or suns as we know them.( I might have exaggerated, but there is no such thing as exagerration of Infinity)

But lets not be bothered with such a huge sum. Lets take our own Milky Way…Aakash Ganga. It houses 400 billion stars…that looks less!

Now there is an equation for calculating the probability of stars (suns) harboring life forms which would have the capability to contact us. It is called the Drake equation. developed by Frank Drake...it tells us the absolute impossibility to make extraterrestrial contact.

N* - number of stars in the Milky Way

Fp – fraction of stars having planetary systems.

Ne – ecologically suitable planets ( for life forms like us : who breathe O2 and need water for survival )

Fl – fraction of planets in which life does arise.

Fi – fraction of those planets with intelligent life forms

Fc – fraction with communicative technical civilization like tv , radio , net.

FL – fraction with radio astronomy.

then N ( the probality of contact) = N*FpNeFiFcFL.

Remember that F is a fraction.

This equation, along with the humongous distances between systems, almost makes the possibility of extraterrestrial contact nil. Our nearest system is the alpha centauries….4 light years away….it means that the TV waves ( going at the speed of light) of world cup 2003 telecast from South Africa would just about be bombarding the various asteroids the system is made of. Or if we climb a spaceship now and go with the fastest technology available we will reach the system in 2210 A.D.

It’s huge. This cosmos of ours. And it is skeptical for an amateur astronomer like me to believe that there are beings out there with which we can make contact. I believe that aliens exist…. but It is hard for me to believe that they can be contacted. But having said that, I am also romantic.. and space…it is the final frontier , the final adventure , the eternal romance.

The Drake equation, though specially designed for the cosmos, has a skeleton framework which can be applied, I feel to interpersonal relationships...or for that matter everything.

It might sound odd , but it is inherently pessimistic, this equation that is.

It shows how everything in this creation, though humungous, infinite...tries for finite perception and recognition.

For example, if we take an arbitary scenario where we calculate the chances of A falling in love and succeeding

N*- Number of opposite gender people in the world.

F* Fraction of people who A will meet in his lifetime.

F' Fraction of compatible people in that

F" Fraction of those in whom love arises for A

F"" Fraction of those whom A will love back.

F"" Fraction of those in whom communication is established about feelings.

F""' Fraction of those whom destiny allows to forward their wishes.

So chances of A falling in love and succeeding will be a multiple of all fractions and the main number, this boils down to a small number...a small number from infinite possiblities.

So nature tries to limit excursions of the mind and heart.

It is futile it teaches....whether you have a hundred relations or ten, they are just fractions from infinite possibilities.

The true form of life worth emulating is a life where the multiple of N and the fractions tends to 1.

That is the Drake equation to attain is N.1/N=1

You cant find infinity in thousand, ten or even two for that matter.

But you can easily find infintiy in one. :)

That is the beauty.

lots of love

Posted By Aachi Mithin - 11:48 PM Wednesday 25 April 2007

Comments

Dear Aachi

A truly beautiful piece. Felt so small as I tried to imagine the universe.

I believe that even though alien contact may or may not become reality but life forms definitely exist elsewhere possibly forming worlds which are also arrogantly content with the belief (or maybe not:-)that they are the only ones this entire existence was created for.

This statement of yours:'It shows how everything in this creation, though humungous, infinite...tries for finite perception and recognition.'-really made me realise yet again how interconnected everything is and how we are truly just micro systems of the grand design that surrounds us. No matter how intensely huge, awesome and powerful the forces around us may seem, they are all wanting to connect! Makes one remember to be thankful and humble for all of existence.

Thanks for this lovely piece pal
love
Anusheh

Posted by

Anusheh

on April 28, 2007 11:37 AM

Dear Anusheh,

Really it is an interconnected existence. It is I feel the outpouring of the varied interconnections of the neurons of the brain. Each neauron for a different emotion, a different era.

But all living wound up in the existence substrate of the Mind.

Glad you liked it.

Hi to buddy Jasjit, Chaitali, Priyanka and others in IFSHA and Harb and other regualr visitors of the blog.

lots of love

Posted by

Aachi

on April 28, 2007 12:49 PM

Hi Aachi,

Most of the time we are aliens to our ownself. We can't communicate with our own self what will we with those outside us. Connecting to the self and moving away from being aliens to our feelings is so important. Once that is achieved you can connect with everything everyone=plants, animals, humans (and perhaps aliens too!. I've experienced it!(Not with the aliens yet!!!!:))

Posted by

Chaitali

on April 30, 2007 05:52 PM

The Drake Equation

By Aachi Mithin - 11:48 PM Wednesday 25 April 2007

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